Betting Market Margin Calculation by Goexch9 id

As previously stated, a 100% Market is one in which 'fair odds' are offered by Goexch9 id. It is a situation in which neither the bettor nor the bookmaker benefits. When the market is judged to be less than 100%, the bettor gains an advantage, implying that the odds are worth more than the probability of all conceivable occurrences. When the market is more than 100%, as it usually is, this indicates that there is less than full value in the market. The bookmaker has the advantage.


How Do We Compute The Margin For A Specific Betting Market?

It's a rather straightforward computation. To begin, we must convert the decimal odds to the percentage probabilities that they reflect, which is known as their "implied probability."

As an example, consider the chances of 1.65. These odds are just 1 divided by 1.65, which equals 0.606. We do this for each conceivable outcome in the event, add them together, then multiply that by 100 and we obtain the market percentage also known as the 'overround'.




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Illustration To Understand Outcomes

Here's an illustration. Consider a football game with three outcomes: either team wins, or there is a tie.

  • Team 1 odds are 2.00;
  • Team 2 odds are 3.90; and
  • The draw odds are 3.50.

We perform our conversions and obtain -

  • Team 1 probability: 1 divided by 2.00 equals 0.500;
  • Team 2 probability: 1 divided by 3.90 equals 0.256;
  • Draw probability: 1 divided by 3.50 equals 0.286;
  • Total = 1.042
  • The market margin is 104.2%.

Given the margin, determine the average fee you pay on each bet. There are several methods for calculating the commission on specific odds. Our recommended method is as follows:

So, using our football game as an example, let's calculate the margin:

  • Commission = (1 minus (1 / Market Margin)) * 100%
  • Commission = (1 / 1.042) * 100%
  • Commission = (1 - 0.96).
  • 4% commission

In this example, you are paying the bookmaker an average of £4 for every £100 wagered. Alternatively, at a 4% commission rate, you would be offered odds of 1.92 on a coin flip.

Tools and Exchanges for Effortless Analysis

Of course, you don't want to have to do this every time you want to place a bet, especially if you're trying to figure out the value in a horse racing market with 12 or so runners. Fortunately, betting exchanges like Betfair show the Market Margin for each market. There are also a lot of online calculators that will do it for you.

Excel Calculator for Bookmaker Commissions

The Market Commission Calculator will show you how much commission you are paying on any specific market. Are you paying a fair price to wager with your bookmaker, or are you paying too much?

The calculator operates as follows:

  • Step 1:Select the odds format you like. The Goech9 Id Market Commission Calculator can calculate the commission for a certain betting market in three different odds formats: decimal, American, and fractional.
  • Step 2: your bookmaker's odds for each conceivable outcome in a given event.
Enter Your Decimal Odds
Outcome A 2.85
Outcome B 2.85
Outcome C 2.85
Outcome D 0.00
Outcome E 0.00
Outcome F 0.00
Outcome G 0.00
Outcome H 0.00
Outcome I 0.00
Outcome J 0.00
Outcome K 0.00
Outcome L 0.00
  • Step 3:Once you've entered your bookmaker's odds, the Market cell will show you the entire value of the market, while the Commission cell will show you how much commission you're paying on that market. We wouldn't recommend betting on markets with commissions higher than 5% unless you have a clear advantage.
Market A 105.26%
Commission 5.0%